Justin Fields Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Passing Yards

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Fields Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 200.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 205.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 200.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a massive 7.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Justin Fields has passed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (198.0) this season than he did last season (149.0).
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Detroit's group of safeties has been lousy this year, grading out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 6th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bears are anticipated by the projections to call only 60.8 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects Justin Fields to throw 29.9 passes this week, on average: the fewest among all quarterbacks.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the Bears ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year.
Justin Fields checks in as one of the least on-target passers in the NFL this year with a 60.8% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 12th percentile.

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