Justin Fields Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Passing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 165.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 164.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 165.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Justin Fields has been among the most effective passers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 7.55 yards-per-target while checking in at the 77th percentile.
Opposing teams have passed for the 10th-most yards in football (258.0 per game) vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year.
The Miami Dolphins cornerbacks profile as the 5th-worst CB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Chicago Bears O-line has given their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 41.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 123.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

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