Justin Fields Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Passing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 157.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 170.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 157.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
Justin Fields's throwing accuracy has been refined this season, with his Completion% increasing from 60.3% to 63.3%.
The Chicago Bears O-line has afforded their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Chicago Bears have gone for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in football), which usually means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 43.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.42 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to attempt 24.2 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.

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