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Justin Fields Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-112/-119).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -101 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -119.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Bears are a big 10-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.The Chicago Bears offensive line has given their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.The Green Bay Packers defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the NFL since the start of last season.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to attempt 29.8 passes in this game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.Justin Fields has been among the least accurate QBs in football since the start of last season with a 59.7% Completion%, grading out in the 12th percentile.
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