Justin Fields Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Carries

Cleveland Browns vs Chicago Bears · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-102/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 51.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect Justin Fields to total 11.7 rush attempts in this contest, on balance: the most among all quarterbacks.
While Justin Fields has earned 29.8% of his offense's run game usage in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of Chicago's ground game this week at 34.8%.
When talking about blocking for ball-carriers (and the impact it has on all ground game metrics), the offensive line of the Chicago Bears ranks as the 9th-best in football last year.
The Browns linebackers profile as the 4th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Bears offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.87 seconds per play.

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