Justin Fields Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Carries

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 5:36 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Fields Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+102/-134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bears to run on 45.9% of their downs: the 6th-highest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects Justin Fields to accrue 7.8 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-most among all quarterbacks.
The Bears offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL last year in run support.

Favors Under

The Bears are a massive 7.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bears are anticipated by the projections to call only 60.8 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
After making up 30.9% of his team's rush attempts last year, Justin Fields has played a smaller part in the rushing attack this year, currently sitting at just 24.7%.
As it relates to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Detroit's DE corps has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 6th-best in the league.

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