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Justin Fields

Justin Fields Carries
Player Prop Week 2

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears

Justin Fields Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 6th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 45.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to earn 6.9 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the least of all QBs.

THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (25.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.7% in games he has played).

The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on just 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bears are a big 10-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Chicago Bears offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

The Green Bay Packers linebackers grade out as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

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