Justice Hill Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Justice Hill

NFL · Player Props

Justice Hill

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Touchdowns

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 24, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Justice Hill Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+571/-720).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -720.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The leading projections forecast Justice Hill to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack near the goal line in this game (6.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (0.0% in games he has played).
Justice Hill's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 77.3% to 82.8%.
This year, Justice Hill has not caught any receiving TDs this year.
Since the start of last season, the shaky Bengals pass defense has allowed a monstrous 86.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 7th-largest rate in the league.

Favors Under

The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
At the present time, the 4th-most run-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (48.6% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Baltimore Ravens.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Ravens are expected by the predictive model to run just 62.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 4th-lowest number on the slate this week.
Justice Hill's 10.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 16.5.
The receiving TD field reads "0" on Justice Hill's stats page this year.

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