Justice Hill Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Justice Hill

NFL · Player Props

Justice Hill

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Touchdowns

Dallas Cowboys vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 8:32 PM EST

Analysis

Justice Hill Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+622/-870).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (33.5 per game) since the start of last season.
Justice Hill has been given a lowly 0.0% of his team's red zone run game usage this year, ranking him in the 1st percentile among running backs.
The projections expect Justice Hill to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense near the goal line in this week's contest (7.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (2.5% in games he has played).
Since the start of last season, the shaky Cowboys defense has been torched for a monstrous 75.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the worst rate in the league.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Ravens to pass on 52.8% of their plays: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Right now, the 6th-most run-focused team in the league near the end zone (47.2% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Baltimore Ravens.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 11th-worst pace among all games this week, averaging 26.89 seconds per play based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Baltimore Ravens since the start of last season (only 52.2 per game on average).

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