Justice Hill Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Justice Hill

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Touchdowns

Baltimore Ravens vs New Orleans Saints · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 7:37 PM EST

Analysis

Justice Hill Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+426/-524).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are predicted by the projections to run 66.8 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.
Our trusted projections expect Justice Hill to be much more involved in his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (8.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (2.6% in games he has played).
Justice Hill has been in the 89th percentile for running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) with a staggering 15.5 mark since the start of last season.
The Saints pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (88.9%) to running backs since the start of last season (88.9%).
The opposing side have run for the 9th-fewest touchdowns in the NFL (0.78 per game) versus the Saints defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

This game's line implies an extreme running game script for the Ravens, who are a massive favorite by 8.5 points.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Ravens to pass on 49.8% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The model projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 5th-most run-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 46.3% red zone run rate.
The 3rd-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Baltimore Ravens since the start of last season (a lowly 52.2 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Saints defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.