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Justice Hill

Justice Hill Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 6

Baltimore Ravens vs Washington Commanders

Justice Hill Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-142/+104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ +104.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Ravens are a massive 8-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

The predictive model expects the Ravens to be the most run-focused team among all teams this week with a 51.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The 8th-most plays in the league have been called by the Ravens this year (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average).

With a terrific record of 4.82 adjusted yards per carry (84th percentile), Justice Hill has been among the leading pure runners in the league since the start of last season.

The Commanders defense has produced the 6th-worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, conceding 5.06 adjusted yards-per-carry.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to have just 125.6 plays on offense called: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.

Justice Hill's 16.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year shows a noteworthy regression in his rushing prowess over last year's 26.0 mark.

When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Washington's LB corps has been terrific this year, profiling as the 4th-best in football.

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