Justice Hill Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Justice Hill

NFL · Player Props

Justice Hill

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Justice Hill Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens have been the 7th-most run-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 44.9% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Justice Hill to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (32.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (11.9% in games he has played).
Justice Hill has been among the leading running backs in the league at grinding out extra ground yardage, averaging an impressive 3.12 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 80th percentile.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers grade out as the worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.22 seconds per snap.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-least yards in the league (just 106 per game) against the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season.

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