Justice Hill Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Justice Hill

NFL · Player Props

Justice Hill

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Carolina Panthers · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Justice Hill Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a massive 13-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 51.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Justice Hill's rushing effectiveness (5.59 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (88th percentile among RBs).
Justice Hill has been among the leading RBs in the NFL at generating extra ground yardage, averaging an impressive 4.00 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 93rd percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens have run the 8th-least plays in football this year, totaling a measly 56.2 plays per game.
The Carolina Panthers linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in football this year when it comes to run defense.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box vs. opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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