Justice Hill Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Justice Hill

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 5, 2026 8:48 PM EST

Analysis

Justice Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-140/+122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -276 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Ravens are big underdogs in this week's game, implying much more of an emphasis on passing than their normal approach.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing teams to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (37.0 per game) this year.
Justice Hill has been more involved as a potential target this season (53.5% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (41.0%).
The leading projections forecast Justice Hill to earn 3.5 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 83rd percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 55.7% pass rate.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is anticipated by the model to have only 124.2 plays on offense called: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Baltimore Ravens this year (a measly 55.5 per game on average).
The Ravens O-line profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers rank as the best collection of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.