Justice Hill Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Justice Hill

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 8:32 PM EST

Analysis

Justice Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-154/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -194 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cowboys defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, inciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (33.5 per game) since the start of last season.
In this week's contest, Justice Hill is forecasted by the predictive model to place in the 86th percentile among running backs with 3.2 targets.
Justice Hill slots into the 87th percentile for running back WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) with a whopping 14.8 mark since the start of last season.
With an excellent 2.0 adjusted receptions per game (81st percentile) since the start of last season, Justice Hill stands as one of the top pass-catching RBs in the NFL.
Since the start of last season, the poor Dallas Cowboys pass defense has given up a staggering 88.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 5th-worst rate in the league.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 3.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Ravens to pass on 52.8% of their plays: the 5th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 11th-worst pace among all games this week, averaging 26.89 seconds per play based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-lowest number of plays in football have been run by the Baltimore Ravens since the start of last season (only 52.2 per game on average).
In regards to pass protection (and the importance it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Baltimore Ravens profiles as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season.