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Justice Hill

Justice Hill Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens

Justice Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects Justice Hill to garner 4.0 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 89th percentile among running backs.

Justice Hill has been much more involved in his offense's pass attack this season (16.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (6.9%).

The Baltimore O-line ranks as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Justice Hill's 4.0 adjusted catches per game this year marks a remarkable boost in his receiving talent over last year's 1.8 figure.

Justice Hill's possession skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 77.4% to 100.0%.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 48.9% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are forecasted by the projections to run only 61.4 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.

Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being predicted in this game) usually mean worse passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased rush volume.

Opposing teams have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game versus the Bengals defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.

As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Cincinnati's unit has been exceptional this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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