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Justice Hill

Justice Hill Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Baltimore Ravens vs Las Vegas Raiders

Justice Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+155/-190).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -180 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

When talking about pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Baltimore Ravens profiles as the 4th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.

Justice Hill's sure-handedness have gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 77.4% to 100.0%.

Since the start of last season, the poor Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has allowed a monstrous 83.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 9th-largest rate in the league.

When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Las Vegas's collection of safeties has been dreadful since the start of last season, projecting as the 4th-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme rushing game script is implied by the Ravens being a heavy 7-point favorite this week.

The projections expect the Ravens as the 2nd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 50.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 9th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 28.56 seconds per play.

The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

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