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Justice Hill

Justice Hill Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Kansas City Chiefs vs Baltimore Ravens

Justice Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Ravens are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their typical game plan.

The predictive model expects the Ravens to run the 10th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.

With a sizeable 9.3% Target% (76th percentile) last year, Justice Hill rates among the RB receiving threats with the highest volume in the NFL.

The Baltimore offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football last year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Last year, the porous Chiefs pass defense has surrendered a massive 89.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 3rd-worst rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Ravens to pass on 55.1% of their chances: the 7th-lowest clip among all teams this week.

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Chiefs defense last year: 4th-fewest in football.

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