Justice Hill Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Justice Hill

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Justice Hill Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Justice Hill has been among the most reliable receivers in the NFL among running backs, catching a terrific 100.0% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

The Ravens have been the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 55.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.22 seconds per snap.
Justice Hill's 3.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the worst in the league: 18th percentile for RBs.
Justice Hill has been among the worst pass-game RBs since the start of last season, averaging just 0.9 receptions per game while ranking in the 24th percentile among running backs.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (74.6%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (74.6%).