Justice Hill Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Justice Hill

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Tennessee Titans · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 3, 2026 3:57 PM EST

Analysis

Justice Hill Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect Justice Hill to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing offense in this game (9.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.2% in games he has played).
Justice Hill has been one of the leading running backs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 15.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has displayed bad efficiency versus RBs since the start of last season, giving up 6.82 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-most in football.

Favors Under

This game's line indicates an extreme running game script for the Ravens, who are a huge favorite by 11.5 points.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Ravens to pass on 47.8% of their plays: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see only 125.2 offensive plays run: the 4th-lowest number among all games this week.
The Ravens have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 52.3 plays per game.
Opposing QBs teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Titans, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 30.0 per game) since the start of last season.