Julio Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Julio Jones

NFL · Player Props

Julio Jones

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Julio Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +185 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 68.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 143.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 63.8 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Julio Jones has been used less as a potential pass-catcher this season (52.4% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (69.8%).
Julio Jones's ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.4% to 56.7%.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has allowed their QB just 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.

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