Julio Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Julio Jones

NFL · Player Props

Julio Jones

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Julio Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+133/-184).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -157 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -184.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 5th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 65.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 62.9 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line profiles as the best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Buccaneers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: least in the league.
Julio Jones has run fewer routes this year (52.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (69.8%).
Julio Jones's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.4% to 55.7%.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.30 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

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