Julio Jones Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Julio Jones

WR · Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 12, 2022 12:13 AM EST

Analysis

Julio Jones Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -165 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 67.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 128.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 65.8 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the NFL.
Julio Jones's 41.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 80th percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has given up the lowest Completion% in the NFL (57.6%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (57.6%).
The Dallas Cowboys safeties profile as the 9th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line has given their QB a mere 2.30 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-quickest in football since the start of last season.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have incorporated play action on a lowly 17.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.