Julio Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Julio Jones

NFL · Player Props

Julio Jones

WR · Philadelphia Eagles

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 21, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Julio Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-125/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Eagles grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year.
With an exceptional 5.12 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (78th percentile) since the start of last season, Julio Jones rates among the top WRs in the league in the NFL in the open field.

Favors Under

The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Eagles offense to be the most sluggish paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.83 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (just 31.9 per game) this year.
This year, the stout Kansas City Chiefs defense has surrendered a measly 59.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the 4th-best rate in the league.
The Chiefs pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against WRs this year, conceding 7.08 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-fewest in the league.

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