JuJu Smith-Schuster Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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JuJu Smith-Schuster

NFL · Player Props

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:21 AM UTC

Analysis

JuJu Smith-Schuster Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +127 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Commanders defense this year: 10th-most in football.
As it relates to linebackers in defending receivers, Washington's unit has been very bad this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in football.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Patriots to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Juju Smith-Schuster's 47.3% Route Participation% this year conveys a remarkable drop-off in his pass attack workload over last year's 81.2% figure.
The New England offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Juju Smith-Schuster's receiving skills have diminished this year, notching just 2.6 adjusted catches compared to 4.9 last year.
Juju Smith-Schuster's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 80.5% to 63.3%.

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