JuJu Smith-Schuster Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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JuJu Smith-Schuster

NFL · Player Props

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

JuJu Smith-Schuster Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+145/-175).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a giant 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The model projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to see the highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The New England Patriots O-line ranks as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

Juju Smith-Schuster has gone out for fewer passes this year (52.5% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (81.2%).
Juju Smith-Schuster's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.5% to 65.6%.
The Cowboys pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.5%) vs. wideouts since the start of last season (63.5%).
The Cowboys cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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