JuJu Smith-Schuster Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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JuJu Smith-Schuster

NFL · Player Props

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 2:51 PM UTC

Analysis

JuJu Smith-Schuster Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+115/-149).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +104 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Kansas City's group of safeties has been very bad this year, ranking as the 5th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Patriots have been the 6th-least pass-focused offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 58.3% pass rate.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.5 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 33.2 per game) this year.
Juju Smith-Schuster has been a much smaller part of his team's pass game this season (13.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (18.3%).
The Patriots O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

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