JuJu Smith-Schuster Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

JuJu Smith-Schuster Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-169/+123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -157 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 64.8 plays per game.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has run a route on 72.4% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, placing him in the 75th percentile among wide receivers.
THE BLITZ projects JuJu Smith-Schuster to garner 6.4 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (62%) to WRs since the start of last season (62.0%).
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.