JuJu Smith-Schuster Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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JuJu Smith-Schuster

NFL · Player Props

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

JuJu Smith-Schuster Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-105/-125).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 10th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects JuJu Smith-Schuster to garner 6.9 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 78th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a massive 14.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.5 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense this year: 5th-least in the league.
JuJu Smith-Schuster has gone out for fewer passes this year (75.2% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (93.0%).
The Houston Texans pass defense has surrendered the 4th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.3%) vs. WRs this year (62.3%).
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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