JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

NFL · Player Props

JuJu Smith-Schuster

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+160/-190).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +160 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 6th-most in football.
JuJu Smith-Schuster's 40.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 28.8.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
JuJu Smith-Schuster's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Completion% increasing from 59.4% to 77.8%.
The Tennessee Titans pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Completion% in the league (71.5%) vs. WRs this year (71.5%).

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a big 13.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best collection of DEs in the NFL this year when it comes to pass rush.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.