Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Joshua Kelley

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Kelley

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 15, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 2nd-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers.
This year, the anemic Raiders run defense has been torched for a whopping 129.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 8th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Chargers will be forced to start backup QB Easton Stick in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
At a -3-point disadvantage, the Chargers are underdogs this week, suggesting more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.
Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 8th-least run-focused offense on the slate this week with a 39.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
While Joshua Kelley has garnered 31.9% of his team's rushing play calls in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be much less involved in Los Angeles's run game in this week's contest at 9.7%.

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