Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Joshua Kelley

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Kelley

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Rushing Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Kelley Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -108 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 62.6 plays per game.
Joshua Kelley has been a more important option in his offense's running game this season (23.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (13.1%).
Joshua Kelley has run for significantly more yards per game (26.0) this season than he did last season (13.0).
Joshua Kelley's running efficiency has gotten better this year, accumulating 4.52 yards-per-carry vs a measly 3.07 mark last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 4th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 37.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year at blocking for rushers.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense owns the 6th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing just 4.29 yards-per-carry.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Los Angeles Chargers have faced a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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