Joshua Dobbs TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Joshua Dobbs

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Dobbs

QB · Minnesota Vikings

TD Passes

Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Dobbs TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+170/-230).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings may rely on the pass game less this week (and call more rushes) because they be rolling with backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs.
The model projects the Vikings as the 7th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 65.6% red zone pass rate.
The predictive model expects Joshua Dobbs to throw 36.2 passes in this week's game, on average: the 4th-most out of all quarterbacks.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the positive effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Vikings profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Broncos, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in football (just 33.8 per game) this year.
Joshua Dobbs checks in as one of the least on-target QBs in football this year with a 62.3% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 24th percentile.

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