Joshua Dobbs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Joshua Dobbs

NFL · Player Props

Joshua Dobbs

QB · Arizona Cardinals

Carries

Los Angeles Rams vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 7:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Joshua Dobbs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
At the moment, the 3rd-most run-heavy team in the league (44.2% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Arizona Cardinals.
This week, Joshua Dobbs is anticipated by our trusted projection set to accumulate the 6th-most rush attempts among all QBs with 5.5.
After comprising 13.8% of his team's carries last season, Joshua Dobbs has been more involved in the run game this season, now accounting for 19.7%.

Favors Under

The Cardinals may lean on the pass less in this game (and call more carries) as a result of being be rolling with backup QB Joshua Dobbs.
A passing game script is suggested by the Cardinals being a -6.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cardinals are projected by the projections to run just 62.8 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 9th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.2 plays per game.
When it comes to blocking for ball-carriers (and the impact it has on all run game metrics), the offensive line of the Arizona Cardinals profiles as the 6th-worst in the NFL last year.

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