Josh Reynolds Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Josh Reynolds

NFL · Player Props

Josh Reynolds

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Reynolds Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-121/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Lions to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.4 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game against the Buccaneers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
Josh Reynolds's 43.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 32.4.
As it relates to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Detroit Lions grades out as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Lions being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Lions to pass on 54.7% of their plays: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (61.8%) versus wideouts this year (61.8%).
When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Tampa Bay's LB corps has been very good this year, grading out as the 7th-best in football.

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