Josh Reynolds Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Josh Reynolds

NFL · Player Props

Josh Reynolds

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2023

Updated Sep 29, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Reynolds Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Josh Reynolds's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Completion% jumping from 68.1% to 76.2%.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Completion% in football (68.6%) versus wideouts since the start of last season (68.6%).

Favors Under

The model projects the Lions as the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Lions have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which should mean reduced pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack performance when facing windier conditions in this week's game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
Josh Reynolds has been much more involved in his team's offense this season, staying in the game for 75.7% of snaps vs just 65.5% last season.

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