Josh Reynolds Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Reynolds

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

New York Jets vs Detroit Lions · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Reynolds Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-175).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Lions to call the 7th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Josh Reynolds has been less involved as a potential pass-catcher this year (84.0% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (64.7%).
Josh Reynolds's receiving performance has been refined this season, compiling 3.8 yards per game compared to a measly 1.8 last season.
Josh Reynolds's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 54.9% to 68.0%.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Detroit Lions O-line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The New York Jets pass defense has yielded the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.7%) vs. wide receivers this year (61.7%).
The New York Jets cornerbacks project as the best collection of CBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a mere 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.