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Josh Reynolds

Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 13

New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions

Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The leading projections forecast the Detroit Lions to call the most offensive plays on the slate this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The Lions have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 61.9 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

The Lions offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

Josh Reynolds's 12.1 adjusted yards per target this year reflects a meaningful improvement in his receiving skills over last year's 9.3 figure.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 4 points.

The predictive model expects the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.4% pass rate.

Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Saints, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 34.7 per game) this year.

After accruing 53.0 air yards per game last season, Josh Reynolds has produced significantly fewer this season, now pacing 44.0 per game.

The Saints pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (60.7%) versus wideouts this year (60.7%).

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