Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Josh Reynolds

NFL · Player Props

Josh Reynolds

WR · Detroit Lions

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Reynolds Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (+120/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Josh Reynolds has accounted for a monstrous 22.6% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 77th percentile among WRs.
The Detroit Lions have gone for it on 4th down 27.9% of the time since the start of last season (most in the NFL), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run among all games this week at 120.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Reynolds to be a much smaller part of his offense's air attack this week (7.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (12.6% in games he has played).
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has given up the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 122.0) versus WRs since the start of last season.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has shown strong efficiency against wideouts since the start of last season, conceding 7.47 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in the league.

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