Josh Palmer Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2024

Updated Nov 4, 2024 3:56 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
Josh Palmer's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Catch% rising from 62.8% to 71.4%.
The Browns cornerbacks grade out as the worst group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Los Angeles Chargers this year (a mere 56.1 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been reluctant to lean on the pass against the Cleveland Browns, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (just 30.4 per game) this year.
Josh Palmer's 32.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 43.2.
The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.
Josh Palmer's pass-catching performance declined this year, notching a measly 2.5 adjusted catches vs 3.8 last year.

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