Josh Palmer Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:21 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 135.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Chargers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects Josh Palmer to be a much smaller part of his team's passing offense this week (10.5% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (15.5% in games he has played).
The Minnesota Vikings safeties project as the 7th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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