Josh Palmer Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-185/+155).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -185.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 64.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Palmer to notch 8.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Palmer to be a more integral piece of his team's passing attack this week (22.3% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (16.5% in games he has played).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to call the 2nd-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the 4th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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