Josh Palmer Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 10, 2024

Updated Nov 10, 2024 9:11 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 27.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) typically correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower run volume.
Josh Palmer's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 62.8% to 68.9%.
Josh Palmer's pass-game effectiveness has gotten better this year, totaling 12.12 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 8.58 mark last year.

Favors Under

The Chargers are an enormous 8-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 54.1% of their opportunities: the 7th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 9th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Chargers this year (only 55.4 per game on average).
Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Titans, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 29.6 per game) this year.

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