Josh Palmer Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (+108/-139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 42.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 49.5 @ +108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Chargers as the 9th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-fastest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.41 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the NFL.
The projections expect Josh Palmer to earn 6.9 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Chargers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Josh Palmer's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 72.2% to 62.4%.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers project as the 3rd-best collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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