Josh Palmer Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-103/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -101 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 10th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Josh Palmer has been less involved as a potential target this year (82.5% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (39.1%).
Josh Palmer has compiled far more air yards this year (38.0 per game) than he did last year (27.0 per game).
Josh Palmer has accumulated a lot more receiving yards per game (36.0) this year than he did last year (25.0).
Josh Palmer's skills in picking up extra yardage have improved this year, averaging 6.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 2.58 figure last year.

Favors Under

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.
Josh Palmer's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 71.9% to 66.3%.
Josh Palmer's pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this year, compiling just 7.10 yards-per-target vs a 8.27 rate last year.
The Cleveland Browns pass defense has given up the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (62.8%) to wideouts this year (62.8%).

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