Josh Palmer Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 47.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 47.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 67.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.40 seconds per play.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 9th-most in football.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Josh Palmer to be a much smaller part of his team's pass game this week (12.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (18.5% in games he has played).
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 9th-lowest Completion% in football (64.5%) to wideouts this year (64.5%).
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against WRs this year, allowing 7.66 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season.

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