Josh Palmer Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 10th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 65.4 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Palmer to be much more involved in his offense's pass attack this week (13.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (7.2% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
Josh Palmer has been among the bottom wideouts in football at generating extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.58 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 8th percentile.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has given up the 2nd-least receiving yards per game in the league (just 121.0) vs. wideouts since the start of last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus wideouts since the start of last season, conceding 7.34 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in football.
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to pass rush.