Josh Palmer Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 18, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+256/-420).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -379 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -420.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Palmer to be a much bigger part of his team's air attack near the goal line this week (16.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.4% in games he has played).
Josh Palmer has totaled many more air yards this year (37.0 per game) than he did last year (27.0 per game).
Josh Palmer's 31.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 17.2.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 4-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Josh Palmer's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 71.9% to 64.1%.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Completion% in football (63.8%) vs. wide receivers this year (63.8%).
The Denver Broncos defense has given up the least touchdowns through the air in the NFL to wideouts: 0.20 per game this year.
The Denver Broncos safeties project as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

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