Josh Palmer Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tennessee Titans · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+280/-380).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 63.4 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 43.0 pass attempts per game versus the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in the NFL.
Josh Palmer has accumulated significantly more air yards this year (64.0 per game) than he did last year (27.0 per game).
Josh Palmer's 44.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 17.2.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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