Josh Palmer Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Josh Palmer

NFL · Player Props

Josh Palmer

WR · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Palmer Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+266/-445).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +289 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +266.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the most plays on offense among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 7th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 65.4 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Palmer to be much more involved in his team's air attack near the goal line this week (13.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (7.1% in games he has played).
Josh Palmer has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football, completing a stellar 71.9% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 80th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has yielded the 5th-least TDs through the air in football to wide receivers: 0.71 per game since the start of last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best unit in football since the start of last season when it comes to pass rush.

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